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Cardano course threatens to crash – Was the Vasil hard fork just hot air for ADA?

 


After the long-awaited Vasil upgrade from Cardano ( ADA ) recently went live, the smart contract platform can now look forward to better scalability and more cost efficiency. Nevertheless, there has been no big boost for the cryptocurrency price so far.


A lot of noise about nothing?

Since the update on September 22nd, the Cardano price has even collapsed by a whopping 9.5% and is therefore only 0.43 US dollars on September 26th. ADA's decline is accompanied by a rejection pattern on the daily chart, which is confirmed by a brief bounce to $0.48 on the day of the hard fork, followed by a sharp correction lower.


The lack of tailwind from the bulls following the Vasil upgrade is comparable to the weak developments following the much-hyped Ethereum ( ETH ) merge a few days ago.


In other words: Cardano also seems to have followed the motto “buy the rumor, sell the news”. Accordingly, the anticipation and price speculation in anticipation of the upgrade was apparently greater than the actual confidence in the improvements.


In addition, the macroeconomic conditions are creating further pressure, because the interest rate hike by the US central bank is of course also making life difficult for ADA.


The timing was extremely bad, as the central bank had announced its hike of another 0.75% just 48 hours before the update. Similar to other risky investment products, the Cardano course then also went down steeply.


The correlation between ADA and the stock market has been correspondingly high throughout the year. The correlation coefficient between the Cardano price and the Nasdaq Composite stock index shows a whopping 0.83 points on September 26th.


Will the big crash come after the upgrade?

Meanwhile, in technical analysis, the price is forming a descending triangle, which could indicate further losses.


Typically, a descending triangle in a downtrend acts as a continuation, meaning that a breakout to the downside would continue the descent all the more. It can be assumed that such a crash will have approximately the value of the maximum height of the triangle.

Thus, a break below the triangle support at $0.41 could see Cardano price plummet towards $0.25. In the worst-case scenario, ADA faces a 40% slump by the end of the year. The joy about the successful upgrade could become a boomerang for the price development, at least in the short term.

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