Skip to main content

Bitcoin bulls aim to reach $25,000 BTC by Friday

 


It has now been 51 days since Bitcoin ( BTC ) last closed above $24,000. Even the most bullish traders are wondering if a sustained recovery is possible. Despite the weak price action, the bulls have the upper hand on Friday's $510 million BTC options expiry.

Investors have turned risk-averse as the Federal Reserve plans to hike interest rates and downsize its record $8.9 trillion balance sheet. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), which measures the price development of crude oil, natural gas, gold, corn and lean pork, fell 9 percent over the same period.


Traders continue to seek protection in US bonds and cash as San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Governor Mary Daly said on August 2 that the central bank 's fight against inflation was "far from over". However, the impact of monetary policy on inflation, employment and the global economy remains to be seen.


Bearish bets predominantly below $22,000

Bitcoin's rally above $22,000 on July 27 surprised the bears as only 28 percent of the August 5 put options were placed above that price level. Meanwhile, on July 30, bitcoin bulls were fooled by the rally to $24,500 with 59 percent of their bets above $25,000.


Looking at the call to put option ratio which stands at 1.60 shows more bullish bets as open interest in call options (buying) is $315 million and in put options (selling) is $195 million. However, with Bitcoin currently above $23,000, most bearish bets are likely to become worthless.


For example , if bitcoin price stays above $23,000 on August 5th, only $19 million of put options will be available. This is so worthless because the right to sell bitcoin for $22,000 or $20,000 makes no sense if it is above that level at expiry.


Bulls could make $200 million in profits

The four most likely scenarios based on the current price development are shown below. The number of option contracts available on August 5 for call and put options varies based on the expiry price. The difference that one side benefits from represents the theoretical gain:


Between $20,000 and $22,000: 100 calls versus 3,700 puts. In total, the Bears will win $75 million.

Between $22,000 and $24,000: 1,400 calls versus 1,600 puts. Overall, the buying and selling instruments are balanced.

Between $24,000 and $25,000: 3,800 calls versus 100 puts. Overall, the bulls make $90 million in profit.

Between $25,000 and $26,000: 0 calls versus 7,900 puts. Overall, the bulls make $200 million in profit.

This rough estimate takes into account the call options used on bullish bets and the put options used exclusively on neutral to bearish bets. However, this is a simplified representation. More complex investment strategies are ignored.


Bears have less leeway for bitcoin price decline

Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $24,000 on Aug. 5 to lock in a $90 million profit. In the best-case scenario for the bears, they can sink the price below $22,000 for a $75 million profit.


However, on July 26-27, Bitcoin bears liquidated $140 million worth of leveraged short positions , according to Coinglass data . As a result, they have less leeway to pull the price down in the short term.


The most likely scenario is a tie. That would mean Bitcoin price would be hovering between $22,000 and $24,000 before the options expire on August 5.

My Top Picks
Honeygain - Passive earner that pays in BTC or PayPal
MandalaExchange -The Best no KYC crypto Exchange! 
BetFury - Play And Earn BFG for daily Bitcoin and ETH dividends!
Pipeflare - Faucet that pays in ZCash and Matic, Games pay in DAI
Womplay - Mobile dApp gaming platform that rewards in EOS and Bitcoin
Cointiply - The #1 Crypto Earning Site
Torum - Join the latest Social Network and earn TRM for Free! 
LiteCoinPay - The #1 FaucetPay earner for Litecoin 
LBRY/Odysee - YouTube Alternative that lets you earn Money by viewing videos!
FaucetPay - The #1 Microwallet Platform
FREEBTC - The #1 FaucetPay earner for Satoshi's
FaucetCrypto - An earning/faucet site that pays out instantly
FireFaucet - An earning site that pays better for some than Cointiply
DogeFaucet - Dogecoin Faucet
xFaucet - BTC, ETH, LTC, Doge, Dash, Tron, DGB, BCH, BNB, ZEC, FEY - Claim every 5 minutes
Konstantinova - BTC, ETH, LTC, Doge, Dash, Tron, DGB, BNB, ZEC, USDT, FEY, 25 Claims Daily

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The 5 largest platforms for non-fungible token (NFT) collectibles

  Since the beginning of 2021, non-fungible tokens (NFT) have had no holding back and the sector is setting new records almost every day.  More and more artists, stars and brands are realizing the potential - NFT are well on their way to catapulting the crypto space into the mainstream.  But which collectibles are currently the most popular? What are NFT? NFT are unique tokens that cannot be exchanged one-for-one for an equivalent token.  Any asset that is tokenizable can be an NFT.  This includes, for example, (digital) works of art, trading cards, game items and crypto domains.  Theoretically, however, real estate or securities can also be mapped as NFT. NFTs can be used to transparently map ownership structures on a public blockchain.  This allows them to store value just like real objects, even if additional copies are easy to make.  For example, the original picture of the Mona Lisa is significantly more valuable than a photo, as everyone kno...
11 comments
Read more

CARDALONIA: THE CARDANO METAVERSE OPENS THE GATES!

  Have you ever been to Cardalonia? With these words, the Cardano Metaverse called Cardalonia starts the gates. In this 3D world, developers and users can interact with each other. First of all, users have to create an individual character with which they can move online. After that you can enter one of the worlds built by developers with this character. You can also purchase your own land in the Cardano Metaverse via the marketplaces in Cardalonia . This is secured by Cardano's blockchain technology and therefore offers a relatively secure transfer of ownership. Since these are only digital plots of land, it is not yet entirely clear when the plots of land are purchased whether they can also be sold again in the future. A possible profit cannot be estimated at the moment. In Cardalonia, the cryptocurrency Lonia is used. The maximum amount of tokens in circulation is 100,000,000. The team consists of Alice Sand (Co-Founder), Vasil Air (CTO) and Dustan Water (Fullstack Developer). T...
Post a Comment
Read more

Cardano: This is the vision that founder Charles Hoskinson has

  The Altcoin Cardano has tended to decline in recent weeks.  The Alonzo upgrade was supposed to bring improvements, but it soon turned out to be a disappointment.  Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson presented his vision for the cyber motto in a live Twitter video. • Cardano in the last few months under pressure • Charles Hoskinson explains his Cardano vision via Twitter • Security and privacy at the center The cryptocurrency  Cardano  has had a difficult few months.  While founder Charles Hoskinson's cyber motto has had a strong run in 2021, it has been steadily downhill in recent months.  Cardano is faced with some difficulties.  The so-called Alonzo upgrade went live in mid-September, for which crypto fans had high hopes, but which soon turned out to be a disappointment.  The upgrade should make it possible to use smart contracts on the cryptocurrency as well.  It soon turned out, however, that although these were entered into Cardano,...
Post a Comment
Read more