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Bitcoin course weakens - can the recovery still succeed?

 


Bitcoin price closed significantly lower last week at $22,582. The closing price was not only below the $23,000 mark, but also below the 200 MA line. So far it has been this line on the weekly chart that has marked the turning point after a bear market or crash.


However, this indicator should be treated with caution. For one, bottoming has only happened twice at this point, and for another, the price never closed below the moving average. That was exactly the case back in mid-June, and now the bulls have failed to jump the line for the past week.


The fact that the rebound was dismissed right at this point could speak to a sustained bearish trend. However, the volume is rather low and there are no major price fluctuations, which in turn speaks for a sideways movement.


A tough summer

There is currently no momentum in the market and it appears that most traders are holding their capital in a waiting position. If the weak sell-off continues, the bears will find potential support for the price around $21,600.


Should this not hold, then the next stop would be at 19,000 US dollars. Overall, a scenario that was already observed last summer is likely. So it would not be surprising if the rest of the summer remains within a range that occasionally shows deviations or failed attempts to break out.


FOMC meeting on Wednesday

The only event that could thwart this thesis is the Fed's FOMC meeting. Because following the meeting of the US Federal Open Market Committee, it is expected that comments will again be made on the course of monetary policy and further interest rate hikes.


So far, decisions from previous sessions have dominated the stock and crypto markets. The next meeting and subsequent press conference should therefore again determine the direction of attack.


It will be decisive here whether the Fed ultimately meets, falls below or exceeds expectations regarding further interest rate hikes.

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