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Will Bitcoin Reach $100,000 in 2022?

 


The Bitcoin course had to accept heavy losses in the last 3-4 months. This dampened the enthusiasm of the general public, but experienced investors see the relatively low prices as a good investment opportunity.


The question is whether Bitcoin can still reach $100,000 in 2022. In that case, the current rates would be an excellent entry point. We make a cautious forecast as to whether Bitcoin can still reach 100,000 this year.


How has the Bitcoin course been in the last few months?

The Bitcoin price was almost guaranteed to rise in 2021. That's why it came as a surprise when the cryptocurrency continued to tumble for the past few months after hitting the all-time high of $68,790 on Nov. 10. The course fell temporarily to $ 35,000 in February. Since then, the price has stabilized and most recently went back above $40,000.

Above all, external factors such as the discovery of the new COVID variant, the announcement of interest rate increases by the US central bank, the FED, and the start of the war in Ukraine have at times led to severe price losses within a few hours. But the trend reversal seems to have been achieved for the time being.


How does the Bitcoin course usually run in the long term?

Bitcoin has gone through several cycles in its history so far. In each of these cycles we have seen a bull market ending with a parabolic slope followed by a bear market in which the price fell as much as 80% from its all-time high. 


The last major cycles ended at the end of 2013 and 2017, when Bitcoin exploded to new all-time highs. Therefore, many analysts assumed that Bitcoin should start such a bull run at the turn of the year 2021 / 2022. It is interesting to note that this massive bull run always began 1.5 years after a Bitcoin halving.

Why the Bitcoin cycle looks different this time and hasn't reached $100,000 yet?

As we touched on, the big parabolic advance of this cycle failed to materialize at the expected time. Actually, most analysts expected a massive increase by January 2022 at the latest. However, some factors caused the Bitcoin price to behave differently in this cycle:


The institutional adaptation of bitcoin has increased massively in recent months. As a result, banks, funds, insurance companies and other institutions have more influence on the Bitcoin course.

External factors are also having an increasing influence on the Bitcoin price. Negative factors such as the announcement of interest rate hikes by the central banks and the war in Ukraine have a negative impact on Bitcoin.

The global financial markets experienced a difficult time due to the crisis situation in the world. The Bitcoin price has repeatedly run parallel to the prices of tech stocks in recent weeks.

All these factors ensured that bitcoin has not yet reached $100,000 and broken the course of its natural cycle.


Can bitcoin rise again in the second half of the year?

With the Bitcoin cycle broken, some analysts believe that Bitcoin has now transitioned into a bear market. The following factors speak against it:


Also, as the Bitcoin cycle has changed, a typical bear market like that seen in 2014 and 2018 is less likely to occur. 

The fall from the all-time high to the temporary low was just 50%. In previous bear markets it was up to 80%.

The extended cycle theory is more likely to hold true. In this case, the big bull run will come with a delay.


Bitcoin 100,000

Will Bitcoin price break $100,000 in 2022?

If the big bull run starts in the second half of 2022, the Bitcoin price could still rise to $100,000. Bitcoin's fundamentals have been looking very good over the past few weeks. Bitcoin hashrate continues to rise and transaction activity on the Bitcoin blockchain has recovered. 


Bitcoin hash rate 1 year

Bitcoin hash rate for the last 12 months, source: Blockchain.com

Bitcoin network activity 12 months

Bitcoin network activity over the last 12 months, source: Blockchain.com

The Bitcoin price seems to be more difficult to predict than before, as long-term trends have yet to emerge. However, the extended cycle theory seems to be one of the most plausible theories. In this case, the 100,000 for the bitcoin is within the realm of possibility.

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