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Bitcoin: digital gold or not?

 


The fact that Bitcoin is digital gold 2.0 is one of the classic crypto narratives. In fact, over the past few months, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has increased, giving new impetus to the narrative. Especially now that currencies like the British pound are experiencing ups and downs, there is an increasing demand for digital currencies like Bitcoin . But is Bitcoin a store of value?


"But apart from their function as a store of value, Bitcoin and gold have less in common than is often assumed at second glance."

In theory, there are many similarities between bitcoin and gold. Stock-to-flow models state that the growth in Bitcoin is similar to the growth, i.e. the production, in gold. Both are only available in limited quantities, both are untraceable and there is no state influence on the price development of either.

Beyond these theoretical similarities, however, practice shows that the Bitcoin price behaves completely differently than the gold price. Aside from the general volatility , albeit a recent drop, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are more like tech stocks. Because unlike gold, the price of bitcoin reacts almost identically to macroeconomic impulses such as such risky assets.


The correlation between gold and bitcoin that can currently be observed should therefore be regarded as more of a coincidence. The gold price suffers from the strong dollar. According to the pure theory, the macroeconomic data should ensure a rising price of gold: inflation, recession, war, actually signs of crisis that caused the price of gold to rise historically.


“But the strong US dollar counteracts these factors”

Bitcoin has been more stable than the tech stock market in recent weeks and is constantly fluctuating around the 20,000 euro mark. "It is questionable whether a weaker US dollar would have the same effect as on the price of gold," says Giesen.


Bitcoin as a store of value - but in different contexts than gold

Irrespective of this, it can be said that Bitcoin is used as a store of value.


"However, it behaves differently than gold and is also used in other contexts"


Gold derives its underlying value from a rarity and the opposing demand as a precious metal, which is required in many different industrial and commercial use cases: from the luxury to the aerospace industry.


"Gold owes its importance as a store of value to these use cases, which have been known for thousands of years," says Giesen. "However, gold has the disadvantage that it is difficult to transfer."


Bitcoin draws its base value from its real value as a means of payment and alternative currency wherever state payment systems and currencies do not work or should be circumvented. There is also an ideal value that results from the founding myth as money independent of the state.


"This can also be found in part in the real use cases".


"In these use cases, Bitcoin has the classic money functions: store of value, medium of exchange, unit of account."


Bitcoin benefits from its excellent portability and non-traceability.


"The latter he shares with gold, through the former he is far superior to gold in these use cases"


says Giesen. Seen in this way, gold and bitcoin are stores of value for different use cases – gold more for macroeconomic crises, bitcoin more for crises in the monetary system, in which other monetary properties are required in addition to the store of value that gold does not possess. The value storage character of gold and bitcoin makes both interesting for investors who use them to diversify their investment portfolios - albeit in different directions.


"That's why Bitcoin isn't and won't be digital gold"


like Giesen. Its price will rise and fall for different reasons than the price of gold, even if these reasons should partly exist in parallel and temporary correlations arise. The current synchronization is therefore rather coincidental.

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