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Bitcoin at $40,000 as Easter begins, fear of “capitulation” growing



 At the start of the Easter weekend, Bitcoin ( BTC ) decided to move sideways, thereby sparing investors the downturn below the important $40,000 mark.


Slow start to Easter

 BTC/USD is trading in a tight range today, capped at $40,700, according to data.


The beginning of the holidays has been very subdued so far, which is not surprising given the correlation to the stock market, since trading on Wall Street has been suspended since Good Friday.


The trading floor also remains empty on Easter Monday, which means that Bitcoin is on its own for a total of four “non-working” days. Accordingly, the correlation to the stock market will not affect the price movement during this period, nevertheless there are a number of other factors that move the market.


In this regard, it should first be noted that liquidity is often lower than usual on public holidays, which means that movements can be all the more drastic.


Deribit Insights, the analysis service of the crypto trading platform Deribit, also sees liquidity as an important factor for the mood in the next few days.



Meanwhile, crypto expert Pentoshi takes a more medium-term perspective, considering the cards for a new upswing relatively soberly as rather mixed.


Accordingly, it would take a clear jump above the current price range for the mood to turn positive again and for BTC/USD to generate a new upswing.


"The $44,500 mark is currently the key hurdle on the way up," the analyst summarized on Twitter . To which he adds:


“However, I would rather guess that it will initially go down again. It would be better for buyers to react quickly.”


100 days left until bottoming out?

But Pentoshi is not the only observer who expects new losses for the Bitcoin course in the short term. Many of his colleagues also take this line.


Even the otherwise optimistic Kevin Svenson fears that BTC's current price development bears worrying similarities to the period leading up to the great Bitcoin crash of late 2018.


However, Svenson cautions that while Bitcoin is currently making higher lows, it was preceded by a series of lower lows. Nonetheless, a "surrender" could occur sooner than expected.


"The difference between higher lows and a total crash is significant, but we should always consider all possibilities because anything else is negligent in my opinion," said the analyst.

Accordingly, the forecast for Svenson is rather poor, because he currently sees Bitcoin on the way to bottoming out, which has so far occurred about 800 days after the respective halving. The current halving of May 11, 2020 is almost 700 days ago.

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